NOMADS Ensemble Probability Tool

Ensemble Probability Use:

1. Choose the location of interest – you can select either a manual Latitude/Longitude pair, or pick one of the many METAR stations listed.
2. Choose the model run date you wish to use, The latest run is usually the best choice.
3. Now decide the set of conditions you wish to test for.
• note: All of the conditions listed will be tested. eg. Probability that the Temperature AND Precipitation will be valid.
• note: Impossible conditions will cause the results to be 0%. Eg. Lowest temperature below -2 °K

Other resources:

• Jordan Alpert’s original application: http://nomad5.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/var/ensprob4.pl
• NCEP Ensemble Information: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/products/gens/
• OpenDap: http://www.opendap.org/
• NetCDF: http://www.unidata.ucar.edu/software/netcdf/